2026 Midterm Elections

by Sean Grogan

As the midterm elections wrap up, the last few holdout states are deciding their winners for Congress and Governor positions. This year's midterm elections have produced a Blue Wave like we haven't seen in 68 years. Many states that haven't been blue since the 20th century have gone Democrat, such as Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina. 

With turnout like this, Democrats have a majority in both chambers of Congress, as well as a lead in governor seats that is detrimental to the Republican Party. But what will a Blue wave of this caliber do in Congress and for the country? The answer lies in the past.

Most people find political waves surprising, But we see this pattern play out a lot. It's called the Six-year itch: a midterm election during a president's second term leads to a wave against their own party. This isn't a coincidental phenomenon either. Since Reconstruction, only 1 president has escaped the six-year itch: Bill Clinton. So what has the Six-year itch meant historically in situations like this? Most major turning points throughout the 1900s that we credit to a President's administration can actually be traced back to midterm waves. Wilson's Progressive Era and the New Deal both began with midterm-wave majorities.  A more recent example, like the activism era fronted by Obama, began in the 2006 midterm before his first-term election in 2008. Therefore, it is safe to say that midterm turnouts are what really push our country one way or another.

So what should we expect from these midterm results? A majority-blue turnout in all three areas of government will be crucial to a possible future Democratic takeover of the White House in 2028, control over future legislation in Congress, and an overall change in state-by-state policy. Democratic supporters need to understand that a direct push from Democrats may not be viable right now for a multitude of reasons. For one, this midterm has been pushing a few major themes towards candidate discussion when it comes to policy; data centers, Medicare, and, most of all, inflation are all issues that have been tackled from different angles in this race. Democratic candidate and now Senator-elect of Michigan Abdul El-Sayed, for example, although running with major policy idea changes such as reform against corpo-political overlap, has focused heavily on Medicare for all. Although his prioritization is on the general policy decisions Democrats could slowly start pushing through Congress, anything more than that could begin to upset the other factor in the Democrats' future: the Red Undertow.

Unfortunately for many Republican candidates who are more willing to keep the current administration in line through stricter checks and balances, the hyperpartisanship consuming our politics won't allow their seats to go uncontested. Currently, the President's approval rating is a whopping 38%, meaning over two-thirds of the country disapproves of the administration, and, as we understand it, thanks to the six-year itch, a president disliked by the public leaves nothing but napalm for his party members in the midterms. Surprisingly, many of these states where Democrats are winning can be traced to larger portions of the public being unhappy with the current administration, not in line with the majority of policies being pushed by Democratic nominees. So when this blue wave is shown to be the biggest shift in decades, we should understand that it may mostly be because the President's approval rating is the lowest we have seen in decades. 

This form of political inflation seems dangerous and highly controversial. If hyperpartisanship continues down this path, we may see serious plateauing with legislative progress within the next few administrations. Or, this could be a wake-up call for Republicans to reorganize and view this as a sundown on their current party leadership. Only time will tell, and we will have to see for ourselves what action this Democratic lead will bring to the table.